Unclassified
Classified by Stephen Bosworth, ambassador.
Reason. 1.5 (B), (D)
1. (C) Summary: Gallup-Korea chairman Choi See-Joong told the ambassador on December 12 that his latest polls (taken December 10) showed that NCNP candidate Kim Dae-Jung had widened his lead over GNP candidate Lee Hoi-Chang to around in third place, five percent behind Lee. The pollster admitted that the magnitude of KDJ's lead over his rivals was surprising. He attributed it to: The reignition of the scandal over Lee's two sons: Millitary service exemption; The anger of many Buddists at Lee's characterization of KDJ as a "Defrocked" monk; Lee's poor performance in the TV debates compared with Rhee and Kim; And, above all, the financial crisis, which has discredited the government and the ruling party. Kim Dae-Jung was well-positioned to win the December 18. Election, Choi said, unless Rhee In-Je dropped out or "Something" were to happen to swing large numbers of voters in Kyongsang to Lee Hoi-Chang. Neither was likely, but remained within the realm of possibility. (Comment: Much care is necessary in interpreting Korean polls, which are notoriously inaccurate. However, there is no doubt that on his fourth attempt, Kim Dae-Jung has his best change ever.) End summary.
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2. (C) During a December 12 luncheon with ambassador and DCM, Choi See-Joong, president of Gallup-Korea, shared his polling data on the presidential election. Park Kwon-Sang, a prominent journalist, and pol internal chief were also present. Chung said that Gallup-Korea's polls, taken every other day, show Lee Hoi-Chang's support steadily declining since November 26, when he was only 1-2 percentage points behind Kim Dae-Jung.(Since the beginning of the official campaign period, November 27, polls are allowed to be taken but not published). Chol's lastest poll, taken on December 10, showed Kim Dae Jung leading with 35 percent of respondents saying they would votes for him, followed by Lee hoi-Chang at 25 percent and rhee in-Je at 20 percent Kim's large lead, was a surrise, chung said, but there was no doubt about the trend : Lee Hoi chang was noticeably declining.
3. (C) This did not neceessarily translate into more votes for KDJ, However, which remained steady at 32-35 percent. rather, chung said, Lee's lost support was turning up in the "undecided" tally. this shift was particularly evident among older voters. Estimating that forty percent of the voters aged fifty-and-above were now in the undecided camp, chung characterized them as conservatives, a natural constituency for Lee, who had withdrawn their support form the ruling party candidate in reaction to the current financial crisis. Chung noted that the financial turmoil started during the last week of November, precisely at the time Lee Hoi chang had peaked in the polls. Since then, he Had Decling 1-2
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Percent in each new gallup-korea poll. In addition to the financial crisis, Chung also believed the following had hurt the ruling party candidate:
--Military service exemption of Lee's two sons. Due to relentless charges, especially by Rhee In-Je, this scandal has come back to haunt Lee Hoi-Chang. Last week, Lee's younger son returned form college in Boston to have his height measured. Though it turned out to be only half-a-centimeter shorter than in the Military Record, by again making front-page headlines, the issue cost Lee substantial support.
--Buddhish backlash. One of Lee Hoi-Chang's campaign pamphlets satirized KDJ as a wayward monk, a stock figure in traditional korean plays who symbolizes an aimless and dissolute character. Chung said that this was supposed to be an "amusing" caricature of KDJ, who had broken many promises in the past. Instead, the buddhist establishment made vocal protests, forcing Lee and the party to issue an apology.
--TV debates. Chung said that Kim Dae-Jung continued to be the biggest beneficiary of the unprecedented TV debates, which has allowed him to rebut directly the
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Subject : Presidential race : KDJ still in the lead
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Recurring charges that he is a communist sympathizer who once in power would promote dangerously pro-Pyongyang policies.
Lee, s prospects : Difficult, but not impossible
6. (C) The second scenario, Chung said, was also a long-
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Shot. Lee could still win the election if the voters of Kyongsang province voted for him overwhelmingly--60 to 70 percent. This required the ruling party candidate to gain 20 percent in the province in less than a week. Chung recalled that in 1992, president Kim had gained substantially in Kyongsang province through last-minute support from the government and superior financing. However, these two pillars of the ruling party support were lacking this time around, he noted.
winning margin and regionalism
7. (C) Noting that whoever wins will have less than fifty percent, or even forty percent of the vote, the ambassador asked whether that could make it difficult for the next president to Govern. Both Chung and Park said that it should not pose any problems, because koreans were used to elections in which the victor did not have a majority-presidents Roh and Kim all had less than 50 percent support.
8. (C) Regarding regionalism, Chung said that this could be a problem in Cholla province if KDJ did not win. The Cholla people have waited thirty-five years to put Kim Dae Jung in the Blue hause, he said. They are convinced that they have won this time. Chung assessed that outbreak of violence could not be ruled out if Kim does not win on December 18.
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9. (C) Gallup-Korea is among the most respected private polls in KOREA. In our previous meeting with Choi in late JUNE, When the convention wisdom was that KDJ was headed for another futile battle, he flagged to us his polls which showed that the Long-Time opposition leader had a far better chance this time around. However, polls in Korea are notoriously inaccurate. Many Koreans hide their true prefernce or flatly refuse to respond.
Gallup-Korea's estimate of a 10 percent Kim Dae-Jung lead is substantially larger than the 3-6percent margin shown in other polls, which underscores the fact that polls are not reliable. There is also a widespread belief among Koreans of all political persuasion that despite what they tell pollsters, once people enter the polling booth, they will do whatever is necessary to prevent a KDJ victory. Perhaps. For now, there is no question that Kim Dae-Jung, on his fourth attempt at the top prize, has his best chance ever.
Bosworth
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